Global Climate Change and Your Coffee II
Coffee is the second most traded commodities in the world, they are grown in over 60 countries and involves quite a number of parties: growers, producer's associations, coffee pulpers, buyers, certification agencies, wholesalers, transporters, retailers, roasters, exporters, last but not least, consumers. Any negativity in the coffee industry can result in a direct hit in global economy. That's why it is important to get to understand what's going on in the coffee world no matter you are a die hard fans of coffee or not. As the coffee industry is now being seriously impacted by the global climate change, we feel the responsibility in sharing to public the information about the current situation.
The Major Climate Change that Impact The Coffee Industry
The delay or move up of rain and or dry season surely concern, as the flowering of coffee is triggered by the first rainfall and control the quality of beans.
Also unstable and or unreliable rainfall, as heavy rain not only cause flooding and lead to water contamination, even there's no flood, flowers and fruits fall from tree in heavy rains, while insufficient rainfall will lead to a low flower bud development, so both lower the harvest.
Temperature affects quality, if the temperature get hotter or cooler than usual, taste of coffee changed.
Coffee Bean Supply
There were over 153 million 60 kg bags of coffee produced globally in year 2017, while 70% were Arabica coffee and around 30% were Robusta coffee, Arabica coffee were usually with higher quality and better taste, commonly use in speciality coffee industry while Robusta were usually used in commercial coffee like instant coffee.
How Climate Change Affect Coffee Market
This is very simple, the rise of price caused by the imbalance of demand and supply.
Labour As 70% coffee producer are small scaled farms (20 million families) production is limited and the number of them is reducing, at the same time, population depends on the product is growing globally ( there's at least 100 million coffee drinker currentliy).
Land As to meet the demand, we will need 2.5 times the existing land area to meet the future demand in 2050. However, it has been predicted that at least 60% bio climatically suitable locations will be gone for Arabica cultivation by year 2050, in the worst case locations suitable for Arabica will no longer exists. Even some lucky farmers able to relocate their farm, the shift of coffee growing regions involves years of experiments and a huge capital.
Apart from the time and money need for the relocation of farm and the developments of new coffee breeds (hybrids) that could survive under difficult conditions. The disrupted flowering cycles makes growing difficult and the erratic flowering and ripening cycles that require additional harvesting cycles directly push up the growing cost.
references: How the coffee industry is about to get roasted by climate change by Sylvain Charlebois , Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Plant and Animal Range Shifts by Union of Concerned Scientists, Academic Journals (Impacts of Climate Change on Global Coffee Production Industry:Rivew by Ebisa Dufera Bongase from Jimma University College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine Jimma Ethiopia)